Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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Wednesday / 31 October 2018 Update….

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Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 31 October 2018

… Stormy Weather with a Cold Front Later Today into Tonight …
… Sunshine and Less Humid Late Week Through the Weekend …
… Another Series of Cold Fronts Sunday into Early Next Week …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a cold front extends southeastward from northwestern Arkansas into southeastern Oklahoma into north central Texas to near San Angelo into southwest Texas and southern New Mexico. High pressure, north of the front, is centered over the Rockies and intermountain west. As a result of this surface weather pattern, the surface winds are southerly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located from the southern side of Hudson Bay southwestward into the four cornrs region. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly around 70 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The upper level low pressure trough, to our northwest, will move eastward today into tonight into the central plains as it deepens. As the upper level trough moves overhead of our area this afternoon through tonight, a surface cold front will surge southeastward on the backside of the upper air trough and move through the area between 4pm to 8pm tonight. Rain showers and thunderstorms will increase locally in advance of the front and will average 1 inch of rain. Some stronger thunderstorms with hail and stronger, potentially damaging, thunderstorm wind gusts are possible especially in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor. Precipitation will shut off quickly with the passage of the front with clouds moving east of the area after midnight tonight.

Cooler temperatures.. a bit below average.. will prevail over the area with abundant sunshine tomorrow into the weekend.

Another weak cold front will move into our area and wash out overhead by early Sunday with increased clouds and a few sprinkles possible after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Another stronger cold front will move through the area by early Tuesday morning. At this point, I am not expecting rain with this frontal passage.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 31 October 2018

TODAY /HALLOWEEN/…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon with an associated lightning risk as a cold front approaches. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southwesterly by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and turning cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before midnight with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. Decreasing clouds after midnight. A 50% chance of rain before midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Low 51. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY…. Becoming sunny. Cooler. High 67. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 49. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light late.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 72. Light wind becoming westerly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 51. Light wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers before 2pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph early becoming est northwesterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 57. Light northwesterly wind becoming light southerly after midnight.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. South southeasterly wins 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny with a cold front passing in the morning. Not as warm. High 71. Southerly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 07 November 2018 through Tuesday / 13 November 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01Nov)………………………………………. 7:45 am
Sunset this evening (01Nov)………………………………………… 6:43 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02Nov)…………………………………………… 7:46 am
Sunset tomorrow (02Nov)……………………………………………. 6:42 pm

Tuesday Evening / 30 October 2018 Update….

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
7:45pm CT – Tuesday / 30 October 2018

…. Severe Weather Risk Over South Central Texas Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Evening  ….
…. NWS/Storm Prediction Center Outlook Area: Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms ….

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/fema/images/fema06_swody2.png

… An Evening Update and My Latest Thoughts …

As an upper air low pressure trough pushes over the area, a surface cold front will surge southeastward
across the IH35 corridor by late afternoon into the evening hours. The air mass ahead of the upper air
low pressure disturbance and surface cold front will be sufficiently moist and unstable with the upper air
disturbance and surface cold front providing dynamic atmospheric lift.

A line of thunderstorms will be developing along and ahead of the best atmospheric lift with the strongest
thunderstorms into the IH35 corridor by 4 to 7pm with thunderstorms then moving eastward. Precipitation
should start tapering off after 8 to 9pm with the cold frontal passage / wind shift. Most precipitation, based
on the latest guidance, should be east of the IH35 corridor by midnight tomorrow night with clouds
locally decreasing thereafter.

The main risk will initially be larger hail and some damaging thunderstorm winds for the Austin metro and
the IH35 corridor area with more of a damaging thunderstorm wind threat and even the chance for a few
tornadoes.. even a few stronger/significant ones.. in the eastern areas of south central Texas into east Texas into
Louisiana and extreme western Mississippi by later tomorrow night and through the overnight hours.

Remember, as well, there will be dangerous lightning risk with all thunderstorms later tomorrow into
tomorrow night.

Given the flooding over the past few weeks, it is important to note that this system is progressive (quickly
moving) and forecast rainfall in most areas should be around an inch or even less. Isolated heavier totals
are possible to the east of the IH35 corridor.

Reminders…
– Please be weather aware over the next 24 hours.
– Always know the difference in a weather watch and a weather warning.
A weather watch (i.e., severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch) means that conditions are favorable
for the  type of weather specified and you need to monitor the weather for the latest updates.
A weather warning (i.e., severe thunderstorm warning or tornado warning) means the type of weather
specified is imminent or occurring and is an immediate threat. You should take immediate action to
shelter/protect yourself.

I will continue to keep you informed..

By the way, I am now sending the most time sensitive weather updates via Twitter (@troykimmelwx)
so I invite you to follow me…

tk