Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Dry and Cooler Start to the New Week (9am, Mo/16Nov2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 16 November 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Surface high pressure, which surged southward into Texas early Sunday, is now moving east of our area into the lower Mississippi Valley and the eastern USA. Even so, expect a dry and stable weather pattern over the next 24 to 48 hours with clear or mostly clear skies with abundant sunshine. Temperatures will be a little above seasonal averages.

(2) We’ll see a return to a south southeasterly surface wind flow by late tomorrow night into Wednesday. This will result in increased low level moisture, a few more clouds and warmer temperatures (afternoon highs warming to about 10 degrees above average) for the latter half of week and through much of the upcoming weekend.

(3) By Sunday, enough moisture and instability will be in place for a few rain showers in the afternoon into nighttime hours ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to cross the IH35 corridor after midnight. Although it’s just beyond the seven day forecast period, much cooler temperatures are likely to follow the front for the first few days of next week. There are some indications that rain chances may linger in the wake of the frontal passage back in the cooler air but confidence in this part of the forecast/outlook is low at this point.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days, indicates very little, if any, rainfall.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to Very High Confidence through Saturday night
Low to Medium Confidence Next Sunday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Monday / 16 November 2020

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 74. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 43. Light east northeasterly wind early becoming calm.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 75. Calm wind becoming light east northeasterly.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 48. Light easterly wind becoming light and variable.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 52. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 58. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers by afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.05″.
High 79. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 23 November 2020 through Sunday / 29 November 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average    
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 November)…………………………………. 6:58 am
Sunset this evening (16 November)…………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 November)……………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 November)………………………………………. 5:33 pm