Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1000am CT – Wednesday / 07 January 2015
.. Arctic Cold Takes Hold Across Texas (Again…) ..
.. Significant Freeze in Most Areas Overnight Tonight into Early Thursday ..
.. Very Slim Chance of Some Wintry Precipitation Early Friday Morning …
.. Overrunning Clouds/Possible Freezing-Frozen Precipitation Event Late Friday into Saturday ..
NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
… None at This Time …
SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
The advertised arctic cold front is moving southward across our area at mid morning. The coldest air
is lagging behind the front by a few hours, but the long and short of it is that we’re seeing our high
temperatures for today as we speak. Temperatures will be slowly falling the rest of the day as gusty
northerly winds pick up.
As the much colder arctic air settles southward, the first concern I have is the liklihood of a hard
freeze across the area tonight. I expect all areas to fall into the 20s with areas closer to downtown
Austin around 30 degrees.
By tomorrow and tomorrow night, with the approach of several upper air disturbances from the west,
we’ll see clouds thicken and lower with sprinkles and patches of light rain developing as early as the
morning rush hour on Friday. Temperatures will likely be just below to near the freezing mark when
this precipitation begins so we need to watch for a very slim chance of some freezing rain or sleet
in the Friday morning period mainly west and northwest of Austin.
What I see as a much better chance of wintry precipitation has the possibility of occurring in the
Friday night into Saturday time period as a stronger upper air disturbance combines with
a more moist atmosphere and additional cold air advection from the north. Temperatures should get to
slightly above freezing by midday into afternoon Saturday (even though it’ll not get out of the 30s) with
the threat of freezing and/or frozen precipitation ending. Precipitation types look to be freezing rain/
freezing drizzle and/or sleet (ice pellets).
Rain will continue through Saturday night into Sunday but, with slightly warming temperatures, all
precipitation will remain in liquid form.
THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability of Freezing Rain/Freezing Drizzle and/or Sleet
Geographic area: Austin northward
Time Period: 5am to 10am Friday morning
Time Period: 10pm Friday night (9 Jan) through 11am Saturday (10 Jan)
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to very high
Precipitation chances: Slight chance Friday Morning into Afternoon.. best chances Friday night through Saturday
Likelihood of liquid precipitation (rain): High to very high Friday through Saturday
Likelihood of freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle): Very Low chance 5am to 10am Friday
Low to moderate chance 10pm Friday-11am Saturday
Likelihood of frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet): Very Low chance 5am to 10am Friday
Low to Moderate chance 10pm Friday-11am Saturday
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: None
Severe thunderstorm chances: None
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MY THOUGHTS:
This event is two to three days out, but we should begin to increase our weather awareness at this time.
*** SPECIAL NOTE ***
I am out of town taking a few more days of vacation before the beginning of the spring semester at
The University. I happen to be in a pretty remote location with unreliable cell and internet service.
I will do my best to keep you informed as we get closer to this event, but please remember that it is
your responsibility to always keep up with the latest National Weather Service/Austin-San Antonio
office updates in the case of all weather events in case I’m not able to get timely updates to you.