Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 12 January 2015

…. Another Surge of Colder Arctic Air Settling Southward Across Texas ….
…. Clouds and Slim Rain Chances Persist through Mid Week ….
…. A Little More Sunshine with a Warming Trend Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. a cold front extends from middle Tennessee southwestward into Louisiana and westward across south central Texas then north northwestward through New Mexico and Colorado. Behind the front, arctic high pressure is building southward through the plains states into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southwestward from eastern Canada through the central and southwestern USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 40 to 45 mph.

After a cloudy and chilly weekend, the new week starts about the same. Dense fog developed over the area in the overnight hours but the advancing cold front has helped to disperse the fog as of mid and late morning.

While visible satellite images suggests that clouds may break this afternoon, especially southwest of Austin, I do not expect the decrease in clouds to last long. As the new batch of surface based colder air moves south through the area, the trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure will enhance the overrunning clouds and slim precipitation chances beginning later this afternoon through tonight and Wednesday and into Wednesday night. At this point, overnight low temperatures will remain slightly above freezing for Wednesday night, so the slim precipitation chances will be concerned with liquid non-freezing precipitation. It’ll be close, though, so I’ll continue to monitor the situation for Wednesday night.

By late Wednesday night (after midnight), clouds will break with a partly cloudy sky expected late week into the weekend. Clouds may thicken again by the end of the weekend as another southeastward moving cold front and a deepening trough.. or line.. upper air low pressure area approaches by early next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through Wednesday night (concerns: temperatures being a little colder than forecast and, of course, precipitation timing and amounts) I have very high forecast confidence Thursday through next weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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