Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
815am CT – Thursday / 06 December 2018
… Heavy Rain Event Will Unfold Across Our Area Beginning Tonight and
Continuing through Friday night and into Early Saturday …
… 3 to 6 Inches of Rain Possible with Some Flooding Problems Possible …
… NWS Austin-San Antonio Issues Flash Flood Watch for Area
12 noon Friday through 12 noon Saturday – See Graphic At End of This Document …
There is little change in my forecast thought regarding the dynamic upper low pressure
system currently located just offshore of the southern California and northwestern Baja
Peninsula coasts. It is moving east southeastward and will likely move ashore into extreme southern California and northwestern Mexico today into tonight.
As it approaches Texas, it is already resulting in a return in southeasterly surface wind
flow which has been marked by extensive cloud cover over our area.
This moisture return will continue.. with our atmosphere becoming very moist.. until the
upper level low pressure area and an associated cold front, and their associated dynamic
atmospheric lift, move across the our local area tomorrow into the morning
hours on Saturday. Widespread rain and rain showers and a few stronger thunderstorms
will be the result,with near 100% rain chances, for the period after midnight tonight
through Friday into Friday night before diminishing slowly into Saturday morning into
midday as the cold front pushes south of our area and the upper level low pressure system
departs to the east.
Rainfall in the range of 3 to 6 inches is possible across our area as this system passes.. with some heavier totals certainly possible. I continue to be concerned that this could result in some flooding problems over our area particularly later tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Severe thunderstorms are a very low risk locally with a “marginal” NWS/Storm Prediction Center risk for the Texas coastal bend, generally along and south of the IH10 corridor, to our distant southeast. Even though severe thunderstorms are not expected, keep in mind that frequent lightning and some smaller hail may accompany any of the stronger thunderstorms.
I’ll continue to monitor this expected storm system and will keep you informed.
Another good source of weather information is the NWS/Austin-San Antonio homepage.. www.weather.gov/ewx .
…. Below Authority / NWS Austin-San Antonio ….
tk