Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
230pm CT – Wednesday / 05 December 2018

… Heavy Rain Event Will Unfold Across Our Area Beginning Thursday Night and
Continuing through Friday night and into Early Saturday …
… 3 to 5 Inches of Rain Possible with Some Flooding Problems Possible …

On this Wednesday afternoon, a dynamic upper low pressure system is located several
hundred miles southwest of the San Francisco Bay area over the eastern Pacific Ocean.
It is moving southeastward and will likely move ashore into extreme southern
California and northwestern Mexico by late tomorrow night into early Friday morning.

As it approaches Texas, it is already resulting in a return n southeasterly surface wind
flow which has been marked by quickly increasing cloud cover over our area.

This moisture return will continue.. with our atmosphere becoming very moist.. until the
upper level low pressure area and an associated cold front, and their associated dynamic
atmospheric lift,  move across the our local area early Friday into the early morning
hours on Saturday. Widespread rain and rain showers and a few stronger thunderstorms
will be the result,with near 100% rain chances, for the period after midnight Thursday
night through Friday into Friday night before diminishing slowly into Saturday morning
as the cold front pushes south of our area and the upper level low pressure system departs to
the east.

Here are the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center forecast rainfall amounts, valid 6pm
tonight through 6pm Saturday night…

As you notice above, rainfall in the range of 3 to 5 inches is possible across our area as this system passes.. with some heavier totals certainly possible. I am increasingly concerned that this, if verified, would result in  some flooding problems over our area particularly late Friday into Friday night.

Severe thunderstorms are a very low risk locally with a “marginal” NWS/Storm Prediction Center risk for the Texas coastal bend, generally along and south of the IH10 corridor, to our distant southeast. Even though severe thunderstorms are not expected, keep in mind that frequent lightning and some smaller hail may accompany any of the stronger thunderstorms.

I’ll continue to monitor this expected storm system and will keep you informed.

Another good source of weather information is the NWS/Austin-San Antonio homepage.. www.weather.gov/ewx .

tk