Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: January 2015

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 29 January 2015

TODAY…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler in the wake of a late morning cold front. High 71. Southwesterly wind shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Thickening clouds and cooler. Low 45. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. A few sprinkles possible after 4pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 56. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 43. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 50. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 44. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th to 1/4 inch. High 50. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as a cold front passes through by late afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch. Low 39. Northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 51. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 37. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered patches of rain and rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 56. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 05 February 2015 through Wednesday / 11 February 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 January)………………………………………….. 7:23 am
Sunset this evening (29 January)……………………………………………. 6:05 pm
Sunrise Friday (30 January)…………………………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset Friday (30 January)……………………………………………………. 6:06 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 29 January 2015

…. Series of Cold Fronts Bringing Much Cooler Temps Beginning Today ….
…. Clouds Thicken with Rain Chances By Friday Through the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. a surface cold front is moving southeastward along a line from southeastern Missouri.. central Arkansas.. into north central Texas into far west Texas near El Paso. High pressure is located.. to the north of the front.. over Idaho.. Montana and Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley and the mid Atlantic region. A upper level low pressure disturbance is over the northern and central California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

A surface cold front is moving southeastward through Texas on this Thursday and will pass through the Austin metro area and south central Texas by midday today. Dense fog.. which has been present in areas east of the IH35 corridor this morning.. will burn off pretty quickly as the day progresses and the front moves southeastward through the area.

At the same time, a series of Pacific upper level low pressure disturbances will begin to track eastward across the southwestern USA and northern Mexico into Texas beginning late today.. tonight and Friday and then continuing through the weekend. This will cause moisture to “overrun” the surface cooler air and clouds and thicken and lower quickly beginning later today into tonight with rain chances returning for late Friday afternoon through Friday night and through the weekend as well. This will result in a chilly and wet weather pattern for the weekend. Early guidance suggests, on average, about 1/2 to 1 inch of rain area wide with this system.

We’ll see some partial clearing for early next week with a slight chance of rain at times along with below average temperatures continuing

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow with my forecast confidence falling back to medium to high for Friday night through the coming weekend (rain chances, timing and amounts being issue).

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel