Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 29 January 2015

…. Series of Cold Fronts Bringing Much Cooler Temps Beginning Today ….
…. Clouds Thicken with Rain Chances By Friday Through the Weekend ….

On this Thursday morning…. a surface cold front is moving southeastward along a line from southeastern Missouri.. central Arkansas.. into north central Texas into far west Texas near El Paso. High pressure is located.. to the north of the front.. over Idaho.. Montana and Wyoming. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley and the mid Atlantic region. A upper level low pressure disturbance is over the northern and central California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

A surface cold front is moving southeastward through Texas on this Thursday and will pass through the Austin metro area and south central Texas by midday today. Dense fog.. which has been present in areas east of the IH35 corridor this morning.. will burn off pretty quickly as the day progresses and the front moves southeastward through the area.

At the same time, a series of Pacific upper level low pressure disturbances will begin to track eastward across the southwestern USA and northern Mexico into Texas beginning late today.. tonight and Friday and then continuing through the weekend. This will cause moisture to “overrun” the surface cooler air and clouds and thicken and lower quickly beginning later today into tonight with rain chances returning for late Friday afternoon through Friday night and through the weekend as well. This will result in a chilly and wet weather pattern for the weekend. Early guidance suggests, on average, about 1/2 to 1 inch of rain area wide with this system.

We’ll see some partial clearing for early next week with a slight chance of rain at times along with below average temperatures continuing

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tomorrow with my forecast confidence falling back to medium to high for Friday night through the coming weekend (rain chances, timing and amounts being issue).

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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