Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: July 2014

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 28 July 2014

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms mainly north and northeast of Austin. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location.. will average less than 1/4 inch. High 98. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch or less. Low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY….. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds early.. then low clouds developing after 12 midnight with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not quite so warm with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves south of the area. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 to ½ inch. High 91. Winds becoming north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as the cold front passes.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 to ½ inch. High 90. North northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. Low 72. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. High 90. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Light easterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 4 August 2014 through Sunday / 10 August 2014…
Temperature… Below to Much Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 July)……………………………………… 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (28 July)………………………………………. 8:27 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (29 July)………………………………………….. 6:48 am
Sunset Tuesday (29 July)…………………………………………… 8:27 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by

Updated 800am CT – Monday / 28 July 2014

…. Dry and Stable Conditions To Start the New Week ….
…. A Slim Thunderstorm Chance Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night As Cold Front Advances ….
…. Potential Big Changes by Late Next Week with Rain Chances and Not as Warm ….

On this Monday morning…. a stationary front extends westward from northern Mississippi and Alabama through southern Arkansas into north Texas into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over west Texas northwestward into Colorado and south southwestward into northern Mexico. A upper air trough.. or line of low pressure..  is deepening and extends from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are easterly at 10 to 20 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues to our northwest.. this is keeping the atmospheric cap.. or “lid”..  in place with the dry summer weather pattern continuing as a result.

By tomorrow.. as the upper air low pressure trough continues to deepen.. the front to our north will move a bit more southward into Texas. Widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front and some of those could get as far south as the Austin area.

The front will stall north of the area by after midnight tomorrow night into Wednesday with our rain chances dropping from the forecast.

By late Wednesday night into Thursday.. the cold front will surge southward once again in association with the passage of an upper air disturbance. The front will move to south of the Austin area as gulf moisture moves northwestward into the area. As upper air disturbances moves southeastward through the area.. rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with clouds and precipitation causing a little cooler temperatures. This pattern will persist… with the front to our south and the northwesterly wind aloft.. into and through the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tonight and high to very high tomorrow through Wednesday. My confidence falls to low to medium Thursday through the weekend (rain chances, rain amounts and timing being the issues).

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel