Updated 800am CT – Monday / 28 July 2014
…. Dry and Stable Conditions To Start the New Week ….
…. A Slim Thunderstorm Chance Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night As Cold Front Advances ….
…. Potential Big Changes by Late Next Week with Rain Chances and Not as Warm ….
On this Monday morning…. a stationary front extends westward from northern Mississippi and Alabama through southern Arkansas into north Texas into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over west Texas northwestward into Colorado and south southwestward into northern Mexico. A upper air trough.. or line of low pressure.. is deepening and extends from the Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley region. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are easterly at 10 to 20 mph.
The upper level high pressure area continues to our northwest.. this is keeping the atmospheric cap.. or “lid”.. in place with the dry summer weather pattern continuing as a result.
By tomorrow.. as the upper air low pressure trough continues to deepen.. the front to our north will move a bit more southward into Texas. Widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front and some of those could get as far south as the Austin area.
The front will stall north of the area by after midnight tomorrow night into Wednesday with our rain chances dropping from the forecast.
By late Wednesday night into Thursday.. the cold front will surge southward once again in association with the passage of an upper air disturbance. The front will move to south of the Austin area as gulf moisture moves northwestward into the area. As upper air disturbances moves southeastward through the area.. rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with clouds and precipitation causing a little cooler temperatures. This pattern will persist… with the front to our south and the northwesterly wind aloft.. into and through the weekend.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through tonight and high to very high tomorrow through Wednesday. My confidence falls to low to medium Thursday through the weekend (rain chances, rain amounts and timing being the issues).
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel