Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
755 am CT – Wednesday / 01 May 2019
… Let’s Try Again …
… Rain and Thunderstorms Later Today into Tonight and Continuing Tomorrow …
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk Later Today into Tonight …
Short range high resolution model guidance (which was correct in its forecast of little rainfall
yesterday) suggests that we’ll see some light rain showers develop over the IH35 corridor by late
morning into midday with thunderstorms becoming numerous this afternoon and continuing
through tonight and tomorrow. A complicating factor is that slightly cooler rain cooled air has
moved south to about San Marcos in the wake of some early morning rain showers this morning
but I am expecting it to “wash” out and for the warmer, more humid air to return to the Austin area
by midday into afternoon today as a strong upper air low pressure disturbance, over northern
Mexico, takes aim on our area in combination with another southeastward moving cold front
into central Texas. Assuming all of that occurs, as the disturbance passes, dynamic atmospheric
lift will combining with a more unstable air mass and abundant low level moisture to produce
this upcoming round of rain showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may be severe with a larger hail and strong straight line thunderstorm
wind risk mainly in areas west of the IH35 corridor into the Texas hill country and southwest
to the Rio Grande River.
Rainfall could be quite heavy with the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance continuing to
suggest upwards of 2 to 4 inches of rain with some isolated heavier totals possible.
By early Saturday morning, the cold front will move southeastward across the IH35 corridor
and that will result in rain chances decreasing by the early and mid morning hours.
As usual, let’s continue to be weather aware over the next 24 hours…
Always have at least two methods of getting weather information..
.. follow me/activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you
must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..
Also, remember the difference between NWS WATCHES, ADVISORIES and WARNINGS…
I’ll continue to keep you informed.