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April 8, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (1200 n CT-Wed/08Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 08, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 08, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 08 April 2015

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 79. Southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as a cold front moves through the area.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 80. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes early in the morning.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and a little cooler. Low 60. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeasterly by late afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 15 April 2015 through Tuesday / 21 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (08 April)…………………………………………. 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (08 April)…………………………………………… 7:54 pm
Sunrise Thursday (09 April)……………………………………………… 7:10 am
Sunset Thursday (09 April)………………………………………………. 7:55 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 08, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 08 April 2015

.. Weak Cold Front Due Friday ..
.. Better Rain Chances Tomorrow into Friday and Continuing Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..

On this Wednesday…. a low pressure area is over the Oklahoma/Kansas border with a stationary front extending westward from Missouri through the low and into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the low through west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of developing upper level low pressure it situated from the Nevada/Utah border southward into northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

A southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.

With the approaching upper air low pressure disturbance combining with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances beginning late tonight into tomorrow with the best chances tomorrow night through Friday and through the weekend. There appears, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, to be at least a slim risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally on Friday. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.

Another cold front is due early Monday which will keep precipitation chances early into the new week.

Just beyond the seven day forecast period.. another weather system, with better rain chances, will move into our area for the middle and latter part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the any severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is high for the early part of next week with my confidence falling back to low to medium for the middle and latter part of next week as it regards precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel