Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 08 April 2015
.. Weak Cold Front Due Friday ..
.. Better Rain Chances Tomorrow into Friday and Continuing Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..
On this Wednesday…. a low pressure area is over the Oklahoma/Kansas border with a stationary front extending westward from Missouri through the low and into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the low through west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of developing upper level low pressure it situated from the Nevada/Utah border southward into northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.
A southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.
With the approaching upper air low pressure disturbance combining with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances beginning late tonight into tomorrow with the best chances tomorrow night through Friday and through the weekend. There appears, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, to be at least a slim risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally on Friday. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.
Another cold front is due early Monday which will keep precipitation chances early into the new week.
Just beyond the seven day forecast period.. another weather system, with better rain chances, will move into our area for the middle and latter part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the any severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is high for the early part of next week with my confidence falling back to low to medium for the middle and latter part of next week as it regards precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel