Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Day: April 17, 2014

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 17 April 2014

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average trace amounts. High 73. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average trace amounts. Low 56. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY….  Partly cloudy. High 77. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 58. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Where occurring, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall amounts will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 24 April 2014 through Wednesday / 30 April 2014…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 April)………………………………….. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 April)…………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise Friday (18 April)…………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset Friday (18 April)……………………………………………. 8:01 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Thursday / 17 April 2014

…. Increased Humidity and Clouds ….
…. A Passing Low Pressure Disturbance with Rain Chances over the Weekend ….
…. More Sunshine with Warmer Temperatures for Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from the western Great Lakes into northern Oklahoma and into west Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are east southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the central USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.

With the surface high pressure now over the northeastern USA, east southeasterly surface winds continue across the area. This will continue through tomorrow into tomorrow night before becoming more south southeasterly for the weekend. We’re already seeing the increased cloud cover.. increased humidity and even some slim rain chances today into tonight as an upper air low pressure disturbance moves over the area.

By the weekend, a stronger low pressure disturbance will move across the area creating atmospheric lift as it moves through. Although the rain chances aren’t that high, we will see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for late Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday.

We’ll see a return to more sunshine.. with a partly cloudy sky and warmer temperatures.. for the first half of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through tonight.. then is high to very high for tomorrow and tomorrow night. My forecast confidence falls back to medium for the weekend (reference the increase in clouds and any rain chances). My confidence rises back to high to very high for the first half of next week.

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel