Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #7
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
600pm CT – Monday / 23 February 2015
… NWS Austin-San Antonio Allows Winter Weather Advisory to Expire at 6pm ….
… Temperatures Currently Falling to Near/Below Freezing Across IH35 Corridor ….
… There’s Still a 20% Chance of Freezing Drizzle Overnight into Early Tuesday ….
NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS for IH35 Corridor Counties:
None
OBSERVATIONS AND MY LATEST THOUGHTS:
At 555pm… temperatures have started to slowly fall with sunset with Austin City
(Camp Mabry) at 32F.. Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport at 32F.. Austin Great Hills NWS
COOP Station at 29.2F.. Jollyville (LCRA Hydromet) at 30F.. Austin Executive Airport (along
the toll road just southeast of Pflugerville) at 32F.. Georgetown at 30F.. Lago Vista at 30F.
The LCRA Hydromet indicates some of the coldest temperatures around Lake Travis and
westward through western Travis County as well as in northwestern Williamson County and
western Hays County.. in those areas, it’s between 27F and 29F.
NWS Doppler weather radar doesn’t depict any precipitation around the area although there
could a little patchy freezing drizzle falling in some areas. These drizzle droplets are too small
and relatively too close to the ground to be easily depicted well on weather radar.
So… bottom line… in the 6pm hour… so far, so good.
We must, however, continue to monitor for any precipitation tonight into early Tuesday. At this
point, the NWS probability of precipitation tonight into Tuesday morning is 20% for any given
location along the IH35 corridor.. indeed, a very slim chance. However, since temperatures will
be at freezing or below for the overnight hours, all it’ll take is a little more precipitation than
predicted to get things messy real quick. One of the latest short range precipitation models are
showing some precipitation developing to our west and northwest around 5am in the morning
and moving northeastward.. current projections are that its effect would be in Williamson
County and areas northward toward Temple/Killeen/Fort Hood. Temperatures will rise above
freezing by mid to late morning tomorrow with slim precipitation chances lingering tomorrow as
temperatures climb to near 40F in the afternoon.
Not meaning to go out and “look for trouble,” another upper air low pressure system will
traverse the area tomorrow night into Wednesday morning with increased precipitation
chances and temperatures cooling to 33F to 34F tomorrow night and highs in the 50s
Wednesday afternoon. No problems are anticipated tomorrow night locally since
temperatures are forecast to stay slightly above freezing but we need to monitor this very
closely. If temperatures end up being colder than predicted right now, then potential
problems could result. This system is forecast to be a sleet and snow producer in north
Texas with very light snow/sleet accumulations expected as far south as Fort Hood..
Temple.. Killeen.. and Belton as well in Milam County in Cameron and even Rockdale.
Heavier snow accumulations are possible further north and east where the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex has been placed under a WINTER STORM WATCH for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. ABIA interests should note this possibility since more winter weather in that
area could affect operations at the DFW/DAL aerodromes and result in cancellations/delays
and diversions Tuesday night into Wednesday.
For tonight… even with the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY allowed to expire.. everyone
in the IH35 corridor counties of Williamson, Hays and Travis counties, including the Austin
metro, needs to continue to monitor this weather event carefully… everyone is responsible for
keeping up with the latest information in case precipitation tonight into early Tuesday becomes
more widespread and the situation turns worse than expected.. stay weather aware. Listen to
local media reports for the latest information.
Also… as usual.. I ask you to please forward ALL reports (icing, sleet) to the NWS Austin-San
Antonio… you are welcome to forward those reports to me via this email address. Please note
TIME OF OCCURRENCE. EXACT LOCATION (DOWN TO CROSS STREET) INCLUDING
COUNTY, AS WELL AS YOUR NAME AND A CONTACT PHONE NUMBER AND ANY
ADDITIONAL DETAILS..
Updates/reports forwarded as necessary..
tk