Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Wednesday / 19 September 2018 Update….

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 19 September 2018

… A Stable Weather Pattern Continues for Now …
… Rain and Thunderstorm Activity Increases Late Week through the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… weak high pressure continues over the Ohio River Valley southward into the southeastern USA and Texas. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends from eastern Colorado southward into New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable or light south southeasterly.

On the upper air map… a deepening trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly eastward from western Canada into the western USA. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, has moved eastward a bit and is now centered over the ArkLaTex region. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are easterly 40 to 45 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

A dry and stable late summer weather pattern continues to prevail across Texas; as a result, we’ll see increased sunshine and warmer temperatures today.

By tomorrow/late week and through the weekend, another area of clouds and rain showers and thunderstorms, associated with disturbance, will move northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and into south Texas. At the same time, the upper level trough, or line, of low pressure over the western USA will move eastward into the Rockies and the plains states and a weak area of low pressure moves eastward from northern Mexico into Texas. All of this will combine to produce increased clouds as well as much better rain chances beginning tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. The latest guidance suggests the possibility of some heavier rain at times. NWS/Weather Prediction Center estimates that we’ll see 1 to 2 inches of rain during the period.

Upper level high pressure.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. looks to rebuild a bit over Texas by early next week with decreased rain chances and a bit more sunshine.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 19 September 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 94. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 26 September 2018 through Tuesday / 02 October 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19Sep)………………………………………. 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (19Sep)………………………………………… 7:31 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20Sep)…………………………………………… 7:18 am
Sunset tomorrow (20Sep)……………………………………………. 7:30 pm