Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
115pm CT – Wednesday / 12 December 2018

.. A Strong and Dynamic Series of Upper Level Low Pressure disturbances Crossing Overhead the Next 48 Hours with a Wind and Precipitation Threat ..

At early afternoon on this Wednesday, a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is
moving eastward from the Gulf of California into northwestern Mexico.This system has Texas  in its headlights.. the system will move eastward overhead south central Texas sometime midday into afternoon tomorrow. A secondary disturbance will move southeastward through our area by tomorrow night into the predawn hours Friday.

The initial part of this disturbance will allow a surface cold front to surge through the area by midday tomorrow. Winds, in the wake of the disturbance and cold front, will be quite strong with west northwesterly winds sustained in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts to 45 mph or higher.
This will be under a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky.. no precipitation expected. All local
interests, particularly aviation and utilities, should prepare for these strong west northwesterly winds since with winds of this strength could result garbage cans and other non-secured items to be blown about as well result in some power outages. Although rains last weekend alleviated fire dangers, we also need to monitor the fire danger especially with the dormant vegetation due to the earlier than average freezes. Winds should slowly die down by late tomorrow night into the day Friday. The NWS/Austin-San Antonio says that a WIND ADVISORY is likely going to be issued for the area for tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Another bit of the disturbance will move southeastward, on top of the colder surface air, late tomorrow night into the predawn hours Friday morning. The system will likely wring out the residual moisture in the atmosphere with scattered rain showers expected across the area. Although overnight low surface temperatures will remain above freezing tomorrow (Thursday) night, the atmospheric column will be quite cold. As a result, it would not surprise me if a few snow flakes mixed with the rain showers especially
as the upper air disturbance departs the area late tomorrow night into predawn hours Friday in areas mainly north of the Austin metro area across Burnet.. Williamson and Milam counties. At this point, with surface temperatures remaining above freezing, it will not result in any icing issues. Precipitation will end before daybreak Friday with clouds clearing out thereafter.

I will continue to keep you informed on this weather situation.

tk