Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 09 October 2018
… Wet Weather Today into Tonight …
… Cooler Temperatures in our Forecast …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a stationary front extends west southwestward from a surface low over central Iowa into another surface low around Topeka, KS with a cold front continuing southwestward into the northern Texas panhandle and northeastern New Mexico then northward into central Colorado. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure extends southward from a weak area of low pressure along the cold front over the northwestern Texas panhandle southward into deep southwestern Texas. Surface high pressure is situated over and off the east coast of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a eastward moving deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is located from central Canada southwestward into the four corners region and northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southerly 50 to 55 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
As the deep upper air low over the western USA moves eastward today, atmospheric lift will be maximized and rain and thunderstorm chances will be at their highest. Stronger thunderstorms are possible along with periods of heavier rain. The upper level low pressure will set up the upper atmosphere with time to a more northwesterly wind aloft and allow for a cold front to move across the IH35 corridor by later tonight. In advance of the front, the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has increased upwards to 1 1/2 inches of rain, on average, between now and tomorrow morning.
As skies clear tomorrow, slightly cooler temperatures will progress into the area and that will continue through late week into the weekend. Another stronger cold front will move into the area by late Saturday into Sunday with some rain chances and temperatures cooling further for late in the weekend into next week.
Forecasters at the NWS/National Hurricane Center will be monitoring tropical cyclone Michael as it continues to move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida panhandle coast. I expect little effect from the system in the state of Texas.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 09 October 2018
TODAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 81. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 68. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming northwesterly after midnight.
WEDNESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny. High 86. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more westerly in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and a little cooler. Low 62. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 63. Light east northeasterly wind.
FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 80. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 64. Light southeasterly wind becoming northwesterly late as a cold front passes.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Cooler. High 71. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 68. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 16 October 2018 through Monday / 22 October 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09Oct)………………………………………. 7:29 am
Sunset this evening (09Oct)………………………………………… 7:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10Oct)…………………………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (10Oct)……………………………………………. 7:05 pm