Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 02 October 2018
… Drier and More Stable Conditions Mid into Late Week …
… More Clouds and Better Rain Chances Late Friday into the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends southwestward from a low over southeastern Lake Michigan into central Missouri with a stationary front southwestward into a low over the Oklahoma panhandle. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward from the Oklahoma panhandle low into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are east southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving slowly southeastward from the western Canada into the Pacific Northwest and the eastern Pacific with the stronger disturbances within this trough over western British Columbia and off the coast of central and northern California coast. The upper level low, yesterday associated with a dissipating tropical cyclone over the Pacific just to the west of the northern part of the Baja Peninsula, has weakened and is moving slowly northeastward in western New Mexico. An upper level high is over northern Mexico.. Texas and eastward over the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are light and variable.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
We’ll continue to be in a rather typical early fall weather pattern although conditions are a little more unsettled than usual and will result in more clouds and some slim rain chances today. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages.
As upper air high pressure, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, strengthens overhead, I see a drier and more stable pattern tomorrow into Friday. Rain chances will show up again in the forecast beginning late Friday and continue through the weekend. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests upwards of 1/2 inch, on average, over the next seven days.
I do not see any cold frontal passages over the next seven day period; however, longer range guidance suggests the potential for a stronger cold front for the latter part of next week.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT…Tuesday / 02 October 2018
TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 89. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated evening rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY /COLUMBUS DAY/…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 09 October 2018 through Monday / 15 October 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02Oct)………………………………………. 7:25 am
Sunset this evening (02Oct)………………………………………… 7:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03Oct)…………………………………………… 7:26 am
Sunset tomorrow (03Oct)……………………………………………. 7:13 pm