Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 January 2017
… A Stable Weather Pattern Into the Weekend …
… Strong Storm System and Strong Wind Threat Late Saturday through Sunday …
… Cooling Trend by Middle Part of Next Week …
On this Friday… a stationary front extends east to west from northern Arkansas through Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle and into a surface low pressure area over southeastern Colorado.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. three upper level low pressure areas are influencing the nation’s weather. The leading disturbance is over the upper Mississippi valley with a second disturbance over southeastern Colorado. A third disturbance is off the Washington/Oregon coasts. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.
The cool morning temperatures combined with the wet ground is resulting in patchy fog but I expect it to lift and “burn off” by mid morning.
The upper level disturbance, to our distant north over the northern plains, continues to move northeastward away from Texas.
Another upper air disturbance – this the one over southeastern Colorado – will send an associated disturbance southwest to northeast overhead today but with the air mass being relatively stable and dry, all I expect are a few high clouds. Some precipitation could form by late afternoon in areas well southeast of Austin mainly in those areas south of the IH10 corridor and east of the US77 corridor. With the clearing skies, we’ll see warmer temperatures and that will continue into the weekend.
The next dynamic low pressure storm system and surface cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by tomorrow night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. Isolated rain showers are possible as the front approaches and moves through the area but the best chances will remain to the east of the area. The main concern with this system is the very strong pressure gradient that, according to atmospheric model guidance, will accompany the system. Current thought is that, in the wake of the cold front early Sunday, our sustained northwesterly winds will be in the 30 to 40 mph with even some higher gusts to around 50 mph. It is something we will need to watch closely in the coming days from not only the high wind threat (non-thunderstorm, this will be under a clear sky) but also, as a result of drying dormant vegetation, a wildfire threat as well.
A quiet weather pattern will prevail for early next week with plenty of sunshine. After a little cooling in the temperatures Sunday into Monday, we’ll see warmer temperatures by Tuesday.
Another cold front.. a little stronger in nature.. will move over the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. I believe this will begin a trend toward much cooler temperatures that will continue into the 8 to 14 day outlook period.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 20 January 2017
TODAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 79. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55. Light southerly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Widely scattered rain showers late; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northwesterly and increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. Strong winds and cooler. High 66. Northerly wind increasing to 30 to 40 mph by late morning through the afternoon with some gusts to 45 to 50 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph late.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 48. Light northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light easterly wind early becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy as a cold front passes after midnight. Low 47. Light south southeasterly wind shifting northwesterly and increasing to 10 to 20 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy.. breezy and cooler. High 67. North northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 January 2017 through Wednesday / 01 February 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (19 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:57 pm