Updated 915am CT – Monday / 24 July 2017
.. Afternoon Towering Clouds ..
.. An Otherwise Typical Dry Summer Weather Pattern Continues ..
On the Weather Map…
Surface map… weak surface low pressure extends southwestward from the Missouri bootheel into central Arkansas and then the Red River country of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Otherwise, weak high pressure is centered to our west over the four corners region and well as over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light southerly.
Upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure is moving eastward off the Pacific into northern California with another located from southern Hudson Bay across the eastern Great Lakes then overhead of the Appalachians. Within the counterclockwise flow around that low (like a spoke on a bicycle wheel), a southeastward moving disturbance extends southwestward from western Tennessee to overhead of the ArkLaTex region. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, covers the central USA and west southwestward overhead of the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are light northwesterly at less than 12 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The southeasterly moving upper air disturbance to our distant northeast has kicked off a large area of rain showers and thunderstorms over east Texas and western Louisiana. It was yesterday and continues today to be a complication in our local forecast with the continuing possibility, as we saw yesterday, of a few afternoon cloud buildups with rain shower and thunderstorm development. Although my forecast yesterday was a “bust” with the afternoon rain shower and thunderstorm development, I feel as though today that we’ll see most of the activity to our distance east as the disturbance continues east southeastward away from our area.
Through the balance of the seven day forecast, I see a typically dry summer weather pattern continuing as the upper level “lid” continues on the atmosphere as upper level high pressure becomes reestablished over the area in the wake of the disturbance. As we saw yesterday, we could always see an isolated buildup due to afternoon heating, but the coverage should be minimal so I will not include it my forecast. The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests little if any precipitation through the next seven days.
Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages through the week ahead.
By the weekend, there are indications that the low pressure trough over the eastern USA will deepen a bit with another upper air disturbance diving southeastward through the Mississippi Valley with a cold front moving southeastward into areas of Oklahoma and Arkansas and then “backdooring” its way into northeast Texas. If this verifies, I may need to add some rain probabilities for the weekend into early next week.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 24 July 2017
TODAY…. Partly cloudy with a few afternoon towering clouds. High 101. Southerly winds 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with a few afternoon towering clouds. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly clear. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear with lower clouds late. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a few afternoon towering clouds. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with lower clouds late. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a few afternoon towering clouds. High 99. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 31 July 2017 through Sunday / 06 August 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 July)…………………………………………….. 6:45 am
Sunset this evening (24 July)……………………………………………… 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (25 July)………………………………………………… 6:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (25 July)…………………………………………………. 8:29 pm