Updated 945am Wednesday / 29 February 2012
…. Brief Break in the Clouds Tonight as Front Passes Southeast of Area ….
…. The Front Comes Back as a Warm Front by Tomorrow Afternoon….
…. Stronger Cold Front with a Few Thunderstorms Due Midday Friday ….
On this Wednesday… a weakening cold front extends southwestward from Illinois into western Tennessee and southeastern Arkansas into northwestern Louisiana and into Texas southeast of our area. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind continues across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the upper Mississippi Valley with another trough digging southeastward along the west coast of the USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate west southwesterly across Texas.
A weak cold front has passed through our area and has moved into the Texas coastal plains where it is already pulling up stationary. Clouds have broken west-to-east as slightly cooler and drier air settles into the area.
Another strong disturbance will approach from the US west coast. As it does, the front to our southeast will return back northward as a warm front by tomorrow with clouds.. humidity and warmer temperatures returning quickly to our local area.
A second.. stronger.. cold front will move through the area with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the late morning into midday and early afternoon hours on Friday. Skies will clear with cooler temperatures prevailing late Friday through Friday night and through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
The surface high will move eastward with a return to a southerly surface wind by late Sunday into next Monday with low level moisture once again on the increase.
My forecast confidence through the remainder of the week is high. My confidence for the forecast for next weekend is very high.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy with some patchy fog developing. Lows in the 50s with a light easterly wind becoming south southwesterly by morning. For tomorrow, patchy morning fog.. otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s with south southeasterly wind.
Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel