Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/1Feb2012)

Updated  130pm Wednesday / 1 February 2012

…. Clouds and Some Sun Over the Next Few Days ….
…. Rain Still on Tap with Cooler Temperatures with a Cold Front Late on Friday ….
…. The Weekend is Looking Good with Sunshine and Cooler Temperatures ….

On this Wednesday… surface high pressure is located off the eastern USA coast over the western Atlantic Ocean with a cold front extending southwestward from the Ohio Valley region into a surface low over west central Arkansas with a stationary front extending southwestward from the low into north central Texas into west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a light southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind pattern continues over the USA with a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure moving eastward over the southern plains and a second upper air low pressure disturbance deepening over the western USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate west southwesterly.

A moist air mass remains in place over our area. Clouds will break in the midday and afternoon and early evening hours over the next few days with afternoon high temperatures warming into the 70s. Late night and early morning low clouds along with patchy fog and drizzle is possible.

The front over north Texas may move southward a little more today as the first upper air low pressure trough moves eastward overhead. I think that the front will stall just north of our area tonight into Thursday.

The second stronger cold front.. in combination with a fairly strong upper air low pressure disturbance.. is due by later Friday with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will actually begin Thursday night and peak Friday into Friday evening before ending by late Friday night with upwards of 1 inch rainfall expected.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday’s cold front..  will move settle southward in the wake of the front with cooler temperatures area wide into the weekend into early next week with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky being the main feature of our weekend weather.

Clouds may increase a bit with the approach of a second cold front early next week.

My forecast confidence today through tomorrow is high to very high with my confidence falling to medium to high for Friday’s front and rain event. My forecast confidence for next weekend is very high. My forecast for the early part of next week is low to medium.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see low clouds picking up with some drizzle and fog picking up after midnight. Lows around 60 with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle will give way to a partly  cloudy sky. Highs in the 70s with southerly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel