Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Wed/18Apr2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Wednesday / 18 April 2012

…. Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Continues Over Next Day or So ….
…. A Cold Front with Slim Chance of Rain Friday into Friday Evening ….
…. Sunny Skies with Seasonal Temperatures For the Weekend into the New Week ….

On this Wednesday… a stationary front extends southwestward from South Carolina and Georgia into coastal Alabama and then into the north central Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. extends from the northeastern states into east Texas. As a result, a southerly surface wind has returned to our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough of low pressure is over the eastern USA with another developing upper air low pressure area in the eastern Pacific west of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate westerly over our area of Texas.

High pressure, which has built into our area behind the front to our southeast over the Gulf of Mexico, has now moved east of our area with a southerly surface wind having returned to the area.

We’re still on tap for a cold front to move through the area by Friday midday and afternoon. I still have my doubts about the quantity of enough low level moisture that will have returned on the heels of the southerly wind to allow for increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances. In addition, newest guidance suggests that there will be a stable air aloft which will prevent much in the way of precipitation until the front gets to the IH35 corridor and eastward. As a result, right now, I will leave the very slim rain chances in the forecast.

High pressure, characterized by slightly cooler (mainly at night) and drier air, will build into the area with the passage of the front Friday afternoon with a typical spring outdoor weekend in store next Saturday.. Sunday and into the new week.

High pressure will move east of the area by late Monday into Tuesday along with the development of a trough of low pressure to our west; as a result, a south southeasterly surface winds will return with a return of low level moisture.

My forecast confidence is now high to very high through the seven day forecast period.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky. Lows in the 50s. South southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel