Updated  130pm Tuesday / 31 January 2012

…. Clouds and Some Sun Over the Next Few Days ….
…. Rain Along with Cooler Temperatures Late Week with a Cold Front on Friday ….
…. The Weekend is Looking Good with Sunshine and Cooler Temperatures ….

On this Tuesday… surface high pressure is located off the southeastern USA coast over the western Atlantic Ocean with a developing trough.. or line of low pressure.. developing from western Kansas and eastern Colorado southwestward into eastern New Mexico.. northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind pattern continues over the USA with a developing trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure over the southwestern USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate westerly.

The upper air low pressure disturbance.. that passed overhead last night.. has left a moist air mass in place overhead. Clouds will break in the midday and afternoon and early evening hours over the next few days with afternoon high temperatures warming into the 70s. Late night and early morning low clouds along with patchy fog and drizzle is possible.

The cold front that I talked about yesterday for early Thursday now looks like it’ll weaken and pull up stationary before ever reaching our area with a continued partly to mostly cloudy sky continuing.

The second stronger cold front.. in combination with a fairly strong upper air low pressure disturbance.. is due by later Friday with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will actually begin Thursday night and peak Friday into Friday evening before ending by late Friday night with upwards of 1/4″ to 3/4 inch rainfalls expected.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday’s cold front..  will move settle southward in the wake of the front with cooler temperatures area wide into the weekend into early next week with a clear to partly cloudy sky being the main feature of our weekend weather.

My forecast confidence today through Thursday is high to very high with my confidence falling to medium to high for Friday’s front and rain event. My forecast confidence for next weekend is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see low clouds picking up with some drizzle and fog picking up after midnight. Lows in the 60s with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, Morning low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle will give way to a partly  cloudy sky. Highs in the 70s with southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel