Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 26 June 2012

…. Isolated Thunderstorms into Tonight with Strong Straightline Thunderstorm Wind ….
…. Afternoon Highs Falling A Few Degrees by Late Week ….
…. Upper Level High Pressure Lid Weakens a Bit by Late Week ….

On this Tuesday… a surface high pressure area is located over Texas west northwestward into the four corners region. A cold front extends westward from Georgia into southeastern Oklahoma and Kansas. Tropical cyclone Debby is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just off the Florida coast. As a result of this pressure pattern, a light south southeastern surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the area of upper air high pressure is located over the southern plains. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light and variable or variable northeasterly over our area.

As upper air high pressure continues overhead over the coming days, a mostly dry and stable weather pattern will evolve through the middle part of the week before a slow weakening trend sets in and the atmosphere turns a little more unstable.

A NWS issued heat advisory is in effect locally into the nighttime hours tonight with maximum heat stress values of 106F to 111F expected.

With the unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures combining with an atmospheric disturbance and a little moisture moving in from the east today, we could see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with the main risk to the southeast of Austin. Any thunderstorm that develops.. given the extreme afternoon heat.. could produce strong (potentially damaging) straightline thunderstorm winds.

As the upper level high weakens by the end of the week into the weekend, we’ll see a few more clouds as a slight drop in the average afternoon high temperatures.

Tropical cyclone Debby continues to stay well to our east. The system is forecast to move northward with no impact to Texas weather over the next seven days.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see isolated evening thunderstorms otherwise mostly clear with lows in the 70s. Southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny with highs around 100s. Southeasterly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel