Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 21 August 2012

… A Slim Chance of Thunderstorms Through This Evening …
… Lots of Sunshine over the Next Seven Days ….
… Near to Slightly Above Average Temperatures Expected to Continue ….

On this Tuesday… a weak cold front extends from southern Alabama and southern Mississippi west southwestward across Louisiana coastal parishes to along the Texas coast just north of Corpus Christi west and then northwest to the Texas/New Mexico border. Surface high pressure is over Arkansas and the Great Lakes states. As a result of this surface pattern, a east northeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is over the western United States with a deeper trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate northwesterly over our area.

A passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. moving northwest to southeast across Texas.. has caused more in the way of cloud cover today with even a few rain showers and thunderstorms. The chance of rain.. although very slim.. will last through the mid to late evening hours tonight with clouds decreasing late tonight into tomorrow.

Once this disturbance passes through the area by tonight.. a mostly dry and stable weather pattern is expected to continue across the area over the next seven days with no frontal passages expected.

I’m watching a weak area of low pressure just off of the eastern coast of Mexico (a few hundred miles south of Brownsville). At this point, this system is expected to remain weak and not have any effect on our local area weather.

In the northwesterly wind aloft, I will continue to watch for weak disturbances, like the one we’re seeing now, moving along in that northwest-to-southeast upper air flow. These disturbances can cause a few thunderstorms but, right now, I just don’t see much of a chance locally after today.

Temperatures should continue to be near or even slightly above seasonal averages.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see an isolated rain shower or thunderstorm into mid and late evening hours.. otherwise a partly cloudy sky with lows around 70 degrees with an northeasterly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy with highs in the 90s with a east southeasterly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel