Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Tues/17Apr2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 17 April 2012

…. Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Prevails into Mid-Late Week ….
…. Another Cold Front with Slim Chance of Rain Late Week ….
…. Sunny Skies with Seasonal Temperatures For Next Weekend ….

On this Tuesday… a cold front extends southwestward from northern Georgia into coastal Mississippi and Louisiana and then into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface high pressure.. behind the front.. extends from the Great Lakes into the southern plains states. As a result, a east northeasterly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough of low pressure is over the central USA with the axis of the trough now to the east of our area. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate northwesterly over our area of Texas.

High pressure, which has built into our area behind the front to our southeast over the Gulf of Mexico, will move east of our area by late tonight with a south southeasterly surface wind returning to the area.

Another cold front will move through the area by Friday midday and early afternoon. The latest guidance suggests that the upper air disturbance driving the front may be a little slower getting here than I thought yesterday so I’ve slowed the frontal passage by a few hours locally. I still have my doubts about the quantity of enough low level moisture that will have returned on the heels of the southerly wind (beginning tomorrow) to allow for increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances, but with the front slowed down, it does give it a few more hours. Right now, I will leave those slim rain chances in the forecast.

High pressure, characterized by slightly cooler (mainly at night) and drier air, will build into the area with the passage of the front Friday with a typical spring outdoor weekend in store next Saturday.. Sunday and into Monday.

My forecast confidence is high to very high through Thursday. The timing of the next cold front on Friday along with any rain probabilities cause my confidence to continue to be medium on Friday before rising again to very high for next weekend into early next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky. Lows in the 50s. Easterly wind becoming southeasterly toward morning. For tomorrow, it’ll be mostly sunny. Highs around 80 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel