Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 14 August 2012

…. Isolated Evening Thunderstorm Possible This Evening ….
…. A Mostly Dry and Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Up Slightly by Friday through the Weekend ….

On this Tuesday… a weak stationary front extends from central Mississippi westward across northern Louisiana and north Texas then back northwestward into a surface low pressure area over southeastern Colorado. A surface trough.. or a line.. of low pressure extends southward from the southeastern Colorado low into far west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure continues north of the front over western Missouri.. another located over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico with a third located just north of the four corners region of the intermountain west. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is located over the southwestern USA with a broad trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

Overall, the large stable upper level high pressure area to our northwest continues its influence on our area weather by keeping a “lid” on the atmosphere. However, with the intense daytime heating and available low level moisture, we could still see isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. It should be noted that strong gusty straightline winds will accompany any thunderstorms that do develop.

The basic dry and stable weather pattern will prevail into late week when another cold front will drop southeastward into Texas with more moisture and instability in place. As a result, I’ll increase the cloud cover a bit along with a slightly better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday and then continuing through the weekend and early next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see isolated rain showers and thunderstorms until 10pm otherwise expect to see a mostly clear sky with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, a mostly sunny sky will continue with highs around 99 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel