Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Tues/11Sep2012)

Updated 930am CDT Tuesday / 11 September 2012

… Dry Weather Continues …
… Much Better Rain Chances with Another Cold Front Late Week …

On this Tuesday… surface high pressure is over the eastern and northeastern USA. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, is situated over Texas but it weakening just a bit. As a result of this upper air wind flow, the upper level winds overhead are generally light and variable over our area.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues across the area as surface high pressure.. that settled into the area from the north following Saturday’s cold front.. continues to move east of our area. As south southeasterly surface winds continue, low level moisture will increase with some late night and early morning low cloudiness returning as early as tonight into early tomorrow morning.

A cold front will, in combination with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance,  approach the area by late week and will likely move across the area Friday. While this front will not be as strong as the previous one last Saturday, the latest computer and manual guidance suggests that it will be much wetter. Scattered  rain showers and thunderstorms will begin as early as Thursday and continue through Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning. NWS rainfall guidance is suggesting that 1/2 to 3/4″ of rain may fall across our area with this weather system.

A weak area of surface high pressure will build into the area with slightly cooler and drier conditions as the cold front moves southeast of our area and washes out along the Texas coast late Saturday into Sunday.

Another.. perhaps stronger..  cold front will affect the area by the middle part of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly clear sky with late night low clouds with lows in the 60s with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds will give way to a mostly sunny with highs in the 90s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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