Updated 130pm Tuesday / 28 February 2012
…. Clouds Prevail with a Chance of Rain over the Next 12 to 24 Hours ….
…. Weak Cold Front Due to Pass Southeastward Through Area Tomorrow….
…. Stronger Cold Front Due Midday/Early Afternoon Friday ….
On this Tuesday… a weakening stationary front extends east-west over north central Texas with a developing surface low over northern New Mexico with a cold front extending southward through New Mexico and into Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind continues across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the western USA from Idaho southward into Utah and Arizona. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate southwesterly across Texas.
Low level moisture continues to deepen over our area in advance of the front over the New Mexico. Weak upper air low pressure disturbances.. being ejected northeastward through Texas by the west coast trough.. have caused and will continue to result in the possibility of light rain and rain showers until a weak cold front moves through the area tomorrow morning.
High pressure along with cooler temps will build into the area tomorrow as the front moves to the Texas coast and pulls up stationary by late Wednesday. As another strong disturbance approaches from the west, the front will return back northward as a warm front by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with clouds.. humidity and warmer temperatures returning quickly to our local area.
A second.. stronger.. cold front will move through the area with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the late morning into midday and early afternoon hours on Friday. Skies will clear with cooler temperatures prevailing late Friday through Friday night and into the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
The surface high will move eastward with a return to a southerly surface wind by late Sunday into next Monday with low level moisture once again on the increase.
My forecast confidence through the week is high. My confidence for the forecast for next weekend is high to very high.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be cloudy with some patchy light rain and fog. Lows in the 60s with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the morning then clearing in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s with south southeasterly wind becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.
Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel