Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/3May2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 03 May 2012

…. A Stable Atmosphere Means Little Chance of Rain ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Cloudiness with an Otherwise Partly Cloudy Sky ….
…. Watching the Potential for a Cold Front Next Week ….

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is centered over the southwestern north Atlantic Ocean just off the southeastern coast of the USA. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and further south into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a rather benign zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow persists across Texas. There is an upper level low over the Pacific Ocean well west of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate west southwesterly over Texas.

As we’ve seen lately, little change as predicted as the active jet stream pattern remains well to our north with fronts not expected to make much headway southward into Texas through the weekend. Even though there is still considerable uncertainty.. some longer range models and predictions try to bring a cold front southward into Texas by the middle part of next week. I’m now thinking that the front will make it into the area before pulling up stationary overhead or just to our south by late Tuesday night into early Wednesday in the predawn hours. I will keep my slim rain chances for late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. I’ll continue to monitor in case the rain chances need to be increased. If we can get the mid week front to move through the area, temperatures will be down a few degrees (and a little closer to average) for Wednesday of next week.

Meanwhile, extensive late night and early morning low cloudiness will occur over the coming days with some light drizzle possible along the IH35 corridor. Otherwise expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The south southeasterly surface winds will continue with additional  return of low level moisture through the remainder of the week into the weekend with afternoon temperatures continuing above seasonable levels.

My forecast confidence continues high to very high through the week and through the weekend and into Monday. By Tuesday into Wednesday.. in reference to the possible advancement of a cold front into the area and any associated rain chances.. my forecast confidence continues to be medium.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with low clouds thickening after midnight. Lows around 70. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds. Highs around 90 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel