Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 21 June 2012
…. A Drier More Stable Weather Pattern Late Week Through the Weekend ….
…. Afternoon Highs Warming to Well Above Season Averages ….
…. Watching the Gulf of Mexico Next Week ….
On this Thursday… a surface high pressure area is over the eastern USA with a cold front extending west southwestward from northern Missouri into central Oklahoma and into the south plains of west Texas and into central New Mexico. A low pressure area is over far west Texas around El Paso with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southward into northern Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the weak area of upper air low pressure over Texas is being filled by upper air high pressure from the east and from the west. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are variable over our area.
As upper air high pressure builds into the area over the coming days, a dry and more stable weather pattern will evolve through the remainder of the seven day forecast period.
It should be noted that with the more stable atmosphere, we will building heat below the upper level “lid” on the atmosphere especially since most folks have not received much rain and the ground remains dry and the drought conditions continue. I will include high temperatures at or above 100 degrees by the weekend into early next week.
The weak cold front.. to the north.. should move southward into north Texas by tomorrow should wash out before it gets this far south so little effect from the system is expected. Besides that, the upper level high pressure will suppress upward motion in the atmosphere so no rain chances are indicated.
A quick update regarding the potential development of a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. New model solutions are rather divergent in their views, but there is consistency in the fact that surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf next week. At this point, I’ll just say that this deserves attention but will not include any sensible changes to my forecast except to strengthen the upper air high overhead (i.e., even warmer temps) as a response to the potential development. I’ll continue to keep you updated.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the 70s. Southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny with highs in the 90s. East southeasterly wind.
Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel