Updated 130pm CDT Thursday / 12 July 2012

…. An Unstable Air Mass Continues to Yield Better Rain Chances Through Tonight …
…. Rain Chances Slowly Decreasing late Week into the Weekend ….
…. With Increased Sun, Warmer Temps Due late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Thursday… a surface high pressure area is located over the southeastern USA  and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A weak stationary front extends southwestward from western Tennessee southwestward to northern Louisiana and over south central Texas. Another surface high pressure area is north of the weakening front over the Texas panhandle. As a result of this surface pattern, a fairly  variable surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, continues broadly over the southwestern USA and eastward into west Texas with a broad upper level low pressure area from the lower Mississippi Valley west southwestward into east and central Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light north northeasterly over our area.

A moist tropical and unstable air mass continues across the area. It should be noted, however, that the upper part of the atmosphere has grown a little more stable over the last 24 hours as the upper high to the west expands eastward slowly. As the weak cold front washes out overhead, I’ll continue the possibility of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms although not with the coverage we’ve seen so far this week. Given the tropical nature of the atmosphere, I still think that some areas may see another inch of rain in the next couple of days before the rain chances taper off a little more by the weekend into next week.

A partly cloudy sky.. with slowly lower rain chances and warmer temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a cloudy sky with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 90s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel