Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/12Apr2012)

Updated  930am CDT Thursday / 12 April 2012

…. A Generally Stable Weather Pattern / Little Change Over the Next Few Days ….
…. Better Rain Chances Early Next Week As A Cold Front Moves Through the Area ….
…. Temperatures Expected to Continue Above Seasonal Averages Until Front ….

On this Thursday… surface high pressure is over the central Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends northwestward from the Louisiana coast into northwest Texas and into a developing low pressure storm system over Colorado and Wyoming. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward through west Texas. A cold front extends southward from central and western Colorado into western New Mexico. As a result, a southerly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern USA with another along the west coast of the USA. Between and south of these two upper level areas of low pressure, a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure extends northward from northeastern Mexico through Texas and into the plains states. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate west northwesterly over our area of Texas.

The general stable weather pattern.. in place across the area.. will continue through the next few days even though our south southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase low level moisture into the area. Late night and early morning low cloudiness will be prevalent over the next few days with an overall mix of clouds and sunshine is expected into the weekend. In addition, we’ve seen a few sprinkles over parts of the area and may continue to see these isolated sprinkles over the next day or so, but rainfall will only average trace amounts. Coverage will be such that the chance of getting a sprinkle at any given location is less than 10%, so I will include the mention in my forecast.

By Sunday night and Monday, our rain chances will increase as a cold front is forecast to move into the area with a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in advance of the early Monday frontal passage. At this point, forecast guidance suggests a low end possibility of severe thunderstorms and upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain with the event. I’ll continue to watch for this possibility.

The front will move off the Texas coast with slightly cooler high pressure building southward from the plains states into Texas for Monday night and Tuesday with a pleasant spring weather pattern for the area.

My forecast confidence through the weekend is high with my confidence, regarding the rain chances and the time of the frontal passage for next Monday morning, being medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly winds. For  tomorrow, it’ll be partly to mostly cloudy after morning low clouds and patchy fog. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel