Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion – Thu / 29 December 2011

…. Warmer Temps Through The Rest of the Week and into the Holiday Weekend ….
…. Strong Cold Front Still Due on Sunday/New Years Day ….

On this Thursday… a dome of surface high pressure area is located over the southeastern USA and another high pressure area over the four corners region and the intermountain west. Separating the two areas of high pressure, a weak trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure over west Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are light west southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of weak upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern half of the country with a weak ridge of upper level high pressure over the western half of the USA. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over Texas are moderate northwesterly across our area.

A dry and more stable surface weather pattern continues over the area with a mostly clear sky expected over the next 24 hours. Abundant sunshine will allow afternoon high temperatures to warm to near or slightly above seasonal averages.

As winds become southerly again my tomorrow afternoon, clouds and humidity will pick up a bit. A cold front is now forecast to come southward into the area by tomorrow night but then pull up stationary just to our south by early Saturday but any rain chances are expected to remain to our south.

A second.. stronger.. cold front will move across the area by late Saturday night into the predawn hours Sunday. The front will pass through the local area in the 12 midnight to 4am time frame Sunday morning. Again, rain chances, it appears, will be very slim and limited to areas to our south.

Colder and drier air.. with abundant sunshine.. will prevail New Years Day into early next week.

My forecast confidence through this week is now medium to high (as a result of uncertainty of the new cold front moving into the area tomorrow night). Beyond that, for the weekend and into early next week, my forecast confidence is up to high with some uncertainty regarding the coldness of the air behind the front.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be clear. Lows in the 30s to near 40. Light westerly wind. For tomorrow, expect abundant sunshine. Highs will make it into the 60s to near 70 with a westerly morning breeze then southerly afternoon breeze.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday..
Troy Kimmel