Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 9 July 2012
…. A Continued Unstable Air Mass and Better Rain Chances through Mid Week ….
…. Beneficial Rains Likely for Parts of Our Area with 1 to 2 Inches Possible ….
On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is located over the southeastern USA and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends southwestward from southwestern Missouri into a surface low pressure area over Oklahoma and then continuing southwestward into west Texas. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, continues broadly to the north of the area with upper level low pressure area from the lower Mississippi Valley westward into east Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northerly over our area.
A moist tropical and unstable air mass continues across the area. I will continue the good rain chances through mid week as the weak cold front to our northwest is forecast to move southeastward further into Texas and weaken. This will only increase the atmospheric lift in the moist tropical unstable air mass.
Computer guidance has consistent in the forecast rainfall amounts for this event with beneficial rainfall possible (certainly more than we might expect in the summer months). At this point, official NWS forecast rainfall amounts are in the 1 to 2 inch range for south central Texas between now and Friday.
Partial clearing.. lower rain chances and warmer temperatures are expected once again my late week into next weekend.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see variable clouds with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, variable clouds with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 90s. Southerly wind.
Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel