Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/30Jan2012)

Updated  130pm Monday / 30 January 2012

…. Clouds Continue to Thicken as We Start the New Week ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Will Move Through the Area Early Thursday ….
…. Cooler Temperatures Late Week with Another Cold Front on Friday ….

On this Monday… surface high pressure is located over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line of low pressure.. developing from western Kansas and eastern Colorado southwestward into eastern New Mexico and western Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind pattern continues over the USA with a eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure over southern Mew Mexico and northern Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate westerly.

The upper air low pressure disturbance.. to our west.. has caused a rapid return of surface moisture and clouds to our area. The upper air system phases with yet another southeastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance over the intermountain west, we could see a sprinkle of rain over the next 24 hours. As the upper air systems move east of our area by late Tuesday into Wednesday, we’ll see the clouds break across our area.

A cold front will move southeastward across our area early Thursday with a second stronger cold front due by Friday morning. Another upper air low pressure disturbance will time itself with the second cold front with clouds and a better chance of rain.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday’s cold front..  will move settle southward in the wake of the front with cooler temperatures area wide into the weekend with a partly cloudy sky being the main feature of our weekend weather.

The high pressure area will move east of our area by late Sunday into Monday with a south southeasterly surface wind returning and clouds increasing a bit into the new week.

My forecast confidence today through the middle and later part of this week is medium to high (exact frontal timing and rain chances being the main unknowns). My confidence for next weekend is high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a cloudy sky with a few sprinkles and patchy fog. Lows in the 50s with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, a partly to mostly cloudy sky will prevail. Highs in the 70s with southerly wind.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel