Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/27Feb2012)

Updated  1000am Monday / 27 February 2012

…. Clouds Prevail with a Chance of Rain over the Next Few Days….
…. Weak Cold Front Due to Pass Southeastward Through Area Early Wednesday ….
…. Stronger Cold Front Due Midday/Early Afternoon Friday ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a cold front extending south southwestward from a surface low over the northern Great Lakes into the middle Mississippi Valley into central Arkansas southeastern Oklahoma into west Texas and southern New Mexico. Another surface high is located.. behind the front.. over the northern plains states. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind continues across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the west coast of the United States. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds are moderate southwesterly across Texas.

Low level moisture continues to deepen over our area in advance of the front over the northwestern part of Texas. Weak upper air low pressure disturbances.. being ejected northeastward through Texas by the west coast trough.. have caused and will continue to result in patchy light rain and rain showers until a weak cold front moves through the area early Wednesday morning.

High pressure along with cooler temps will build into the area as the Wednesday front moves to the Texas coast and pulls up stationary by late Wednesday.

The front will return back northward as a warm front by late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with clouds.. humidity and warmer temperatures returning quickly.

A second.. stronger.. cold front will move through the area with widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms during the mid and late morning into midday hours on Friday. Skies will clear with cooler temperatures prevailing late Friday through Friday night and into the weekend.

The surface high, behind the second front, will move eastward with a return to a southerly surface wind by late Sunday into next Monday.

My forecast confidence through the week is high. My confidence for the forecast for next weekend is high to very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly cloudy with some light rain.¬† Lows in the 60s with a southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s with south southeasterly wind.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel