Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 25 June 2012

…. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Into the New Week ….
…. Afternoon Highs Well Above Season Averages ….
…. Upper Level High Pressure Lid Weakens a Bit by Late Week ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is located over Texas and extends northwestward into the southern Rockies. Tropical cyclone Debby is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, a variable surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the area of upper air high pressure is located over the southern plains. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light and variable or variable northeasterly over our area.

As upper air high pressure continues overhead over the coming days, a dry and stable weather pattern will evolve through the middle part of the week before a slow weakening trend sets in and the atmosphere turns a little more unstable. With the unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures combining with a little moisture moving in from the east, we could see an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow into tomorrow night. Any thunderstorm that develops.. given the extreme afternoon heat.. could produce strong (potentially damaging) winds.

As the upper level high weakens by the end of the week into the weekend, we’ll see a few more clouds as a slight drop in the average afternoon high temperatures.

Tropical cyclone Debby continues to stay well to our east. The system is forecast to move northward with no impact to Texas weather over the next seven days.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the 70s. Northeasterly wind. For tomorrow, mostly sunny with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs in the 100s. Southeasterly wind.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel