Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/16Apr2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 16 April 2012

…. Some Clouds Linger as Final Part of Upper Air Storm System Moves By Tonight ….
…. Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Prevails into Mid-Late Week ….
…. Another Cold Front with Slim Chance of Rain Late Week ….

On this Monday… a cold front extends southwestward from northern Mississippi through central Louisiana and across the Texas coastal plains and then into northeastern Mexico southwest of Laredo. Surface high pressure is over Oklahoma. As a result, a northeasterly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough of low pressure is over the central USA with one eastward moving disturbance.. within this trough.. still to our west. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate west southwesterly over our area of Texas.

As the last disturbance.. within the upper air trough of low pressure over the central USA.. moves through our area, our lingering clouds and slim rain chances tonight will give way to a more stable and drier weather pattern, with lots more sunshine and warmer temperatures, over the next few days.

High pressure, behind the front to our southeast, will move east of our area by late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow night with a south southeasterly surface wind returning to the area by tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Another cold front will move through the area by Friday morning and midday. Enough low level moisture will have returned on the heels of the southerly wind to allow for increased clouds and slim rain shower and thunderstorm chances as the front moves through the area.

High pressure, characterized by slightly cooler and drier air, will build into the area with the passage of the front Friday with a typical spring outdoor weekend in store next Saturday and Sunday.

My forecast confidence through tomorrow is high then increases to high to very high forecast confidence for Wednesday through Thursday. The timing of the next cold front on Friday along with any rain probabilities cause my confidence to fall to medium on Friday before rising again to high to very high for next weekend.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Northeasterly winds. For tomorrow, it’ll be mostly sunny. Highs around 80 with a northeasterly wind becoming easterly by late afternoon.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel