Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 6 July 2012

…. A Stable Upper Level High Pressure Continues for One More Day ….
…. A More Unstable Air Mass and Rain Chances by Tomorrow into Next Week ….
…. Beneficial Rains Possible Next Week ….

On this Friday… a surface high pressure area is located over the southeastern USA  and to the west over the southwestern states. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas southward through eastern New Mexico and west Texas. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, continues broadly across our area. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light and variable over our area.

The upper level high continues over the area, especially north of the area, and this has resulted in a fairly stable weather pattern across south central Texas. Changes are on the way, though, beyond today and tonight.

A more unstable air mass along with the influence off the Gulf of Mexico will prevail beginning tomorrow and continuing through much of next week. I will include rain chances beginning Saturday and continuing through next week. In addition, a weak cold front is forecast to move southward into Texas and weaken by early into mid parts of next week. This will only increase the atmospheric lift in what will otherwise by a moist tropical unstable air mass.

Computer guidance has consistent in increasing forecast rainfall amounts for this event with beneficial rainfall possible (certainly more than we might expect in the summer months). At this point, official NWS forecast rainfall amounts are in the 1/2 to 1 inch rain for south central Texas between now and Thursday of next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy early with low clouds late with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds will give way to a partly cloudy sky with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 90s. Southerly wind.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel