Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
730pm CDT – Saturday / 9 February 2013

.. No Big Changes …

Light sprinkles.. light fog and low clouds continue over our area at early evening as a warm front lifts northward across the area. A cold front and intensifying low pressure is moving eastward through far west Texas.

Rain shower and thunderstorm chances will increase after midnight and then peak in the early morning hours as the cold front moves through the area in the 6 am to 9am time period.

The basic forecast scenario, as outlined earlier today,  remains unchanged. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, in their just updated (100053z) day one severe weather outlook valid through 6am tomorrow…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ..
has decreased the overall size of the “slight risk” severe thunderstorm outlook but it still includes central and north Texas.. mainly north of Austin.

I think that this continues be a “low end” threat for Austin and south central Texas with the main risk locally continuing to be greater than 1″ diameter hail with a lesser risk of strong straight line thunderstorm winds. The tornado risk is very minimal over our area with the greatest risk (still a slim risk) north of the Austin metro area.

The updated NWS/NCEP Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Austin and south central Texas is now suggesting only up to about 1/2 inch of rainfall between now and noon tomorrow. With the passage of the best atmospheric dynamics to our north, I fear that our totals could be less.

Updates will be issued as necessary.
tk

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