Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/4May2012)

Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 4 May 2012

…. A Stable Atmosphere Means Little Chance of Rain ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Cloudiness with an Otherwise Partly Cloudy Sky ….
…. The Timing of the Cold Front and Rain Chances Next Week Changed a Bit ….

On this Friday… surface high pressure is centered over the southwestern north Atlantic Ocean just off the southeastern coast of the USA. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and further south into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a rather benign zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow persists across Texas. An upper level trough is developing over the southwestern USA with an upper level low over the Pacific Ocean well west of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate west southwesterly over Texas.

As we’ve seen lately, little change as predicted as the active jet stream pattern remains well to our north with fronts not expected to make much headway southward into Texas through the weekend. Extensive late night and early morning low cloudiness will occur over the coming days with some light drizzle possible along the IH35 corridor. Otherwise expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The south southeasterly surface winds will continue with additional  return of low level moisture through the weekend with afternoon temperatures continuing well above seasonable levels.

The overnight longer range models and predictions are speeding up the cold front southward into Texas by the early part of next week. The front will make it into the area by midday into afternoon on Monday and then push southeastward toward the Texas coast. Based on these changes, I’ll speed up the still relatively slim rain chances back into Sunday night and Monday and Tuesday. I’ll continue to monitor in case the rain chances need to be increased.

With the front now forecast to move southeast of the area, temperatures will cool to near seasonal averages for the early into mid part of next week.

Southerly surface winds will return to the area by late next week.

My forecast confidence continues high to very high through the weekend. By Monday into Tuesday.. in reference to the advancement of a cold front into the area and any associated rain chances.. my forecast confidence is medium to high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with low clouds thickening after midnight. Lows around 70. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds. Highs around 90 with a southerly wind.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel