Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 27 April 2012
…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Continue Across Texas ….
…. Late Night and Early Morning Cloudiness with an Otherwise Partly Cloudy Sky ….
…. As Upper Level High Pressure Weakens, Daytime Highs Fall Only a Few Degrees …
On this Friday… surface high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles and further south into southwest Texas and northern Mexico. A weakening cold front is located from western Oklahoma southward into southwest Texas. As a result, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is situated over the western two thirds of the USA with upper air disturbances moving eastward through that flow.. carrying the disturbances well to the north of the local area. A shrinking ridge of upper level high pressure has settled southward.. as predicted.. into northeastern Mexico and far south Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate west southwesterly over Texas.
As the upper air disturbances move eastward in the upper air flow to the north of our area, as predicted, the high has continued weaken and shrink and sink southward. As a result, a south southeasterly surface winds will continue with additional return of low level moisture through the remainder of the week into the weekend with afternoon temperatures settling only a couple of degrees.
The latest guidance does not suggest and frontal passages over the next seven days with all fronts staying well to our northwest. The very latest guidance now suggests a dry weather pattern locally with the passing upper air disturbances not far enough south to give us any appreciable chance of rain. As a result, I am dropping rain chances through the next seven days even though it is possible some light drizzle could fall along the IH35 corridor with our extensive morning low cloudiness.
My forecast confidence continues high to very high through the weekend into the early and mid part of next week.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a partly cloudy sky with low clouds thickening after midnight. Lows in the 60s to near 70. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, it’ll be partly cloudy after morning low clouds. Highs in the 80s to near 90 with a southerly wind.
Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel