Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 22 June 2012

…. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Through the Weekend into Next Week ….
…. Afternoon Highs Warming to Well Above Season Averages ….
…. Watching the Gulf of Mexico for Next Week ….

On this Friday… a surface high pressure area is off the southeastern USA coast over the Atlantic Ocean with a weakening cold front extending southwestward from western Tennessee the ArkLaTex region into west central Texas around Midland. A low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into New Mexico. A developing surface low is over the south central Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, a south southeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the area of upper air high pressure continues to strengthen across Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light and variable over our area.

As upper air high pressure continues overhead over the coming days, a dry and stable weather pattern will evolve through the remainder of the seven day forecast period.
It should be noted that with the more stable atmosphere, we will building a “heat dome” below the upper level “lid” on the atmosphere especially since most folks have not received much rain and the ground remains dry and the drought conditions continue. I will include well above average high temperatures at or above 100 degrees through the weekend into next week.

The weakening cold front.. to the north.. should move southward a few more miles into Texas. Nevertheless, it should wash out before it has much effect locally.

I am a little more concerned today that the deepening surface low in the Gulf of Mexico may ultimately have an effect on Texas weather by the end of next week. Model guidance.. over the last 24 hours.. has indicated an initial northward movement and then a westward movement with time toward Texas. I will now include a chance of rain by Thursday but really the most immediate effect will be to, as the Gulf system becomes better organized, strengthen the upper air high overhead (i.e., we’ll see even warmer temps). I, of course, will keep you updated.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the 70s. South southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, sunshine with highs near 100. South southeasterly wind.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel