Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/13Apr2012)

Updated  130pm CDT Friday / 13 April 2012

…. Little Change in the Overall Weather Pattern Until Late in the Weekend ….
…. Better Rain Chances Sunday into Early Monday As Cold Front Moves Through ….
…. Cooler Temperatures and Less Humid in the Wake of the Cold Front ….

On this Friday… surface high pressure is over the western north Atlantic Ocean off the east coast of the USA. central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends south southwestward from central and eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and south southwestward across west Texas.. the Texas Big Bend and into northern Mexico. As a result, a southerly surface wind is present over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward over the eastern USA with another along the west coast of the USA. Between and south of these two upper level areas of low pressure, a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure has weakened and generally has moved east of Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are becoming more southwesterly over our area of Texas.

The general stable weather pattern.. in place across the area.. will continue through the next day or so even though our south southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase low level moisture into the area. Late night and early morning low cloudiness will be prevalent over the next few days with an overall mix of clouds and sunshine is expected into the weekend. In addition, we’ve seen a few sprinkles over parts of the area and may continue to see these isolated sprinkles over the next day or so, but rainfall will only average trace amounts. Coverage will be such that the chance of getting a sprinkle at any given location is less than 10%, so I will include the mention in my forecast.

By late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday, our rain chances will increase as a cold front is forecast to move into the area with a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in advance of the predawn Monday cold frontal passage. At this point, forecast guidance suggests a low end possibility of severe thunderstorms and upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of rain with the event. I’ll continue to watch for this possibility.

The front will move off the Texas coast with slightly cooler high pressure building southward from the plains states into Texas for Monday night and Tuesday and into mid and late week with a pleasant spring weather pattern for the area.

My forecast confidence through the weekend is high with my confidence, regarding the rain chances and the time of the frontal passage for Sunday night into Monday morning, being medium to high. Monday night through the mid and latter part of next week, my forecast confidence is very high.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly cloudy sky with a few sprinkles. Lows in the 60s. South southeasterly winds. For  tomorrow, it’ll be mostly cloudy after morning low clouds and a few sprinkles. Highs in the 80s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel