Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion for Tues/5Jun2012

Updated 130pm CDT Tuesday / 5 June 2012

…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern Still Due Mid into Late Week ….
…. Clouds Will Be on the Increase with Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms ….
…. Afternoon High Temperatures Will Fall a Few Degrees ….

On this Tuesday… a surface high pressure area is over Florida, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southwest North Atlantic Ocean. An area of low pressure is centered over the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. A weakening cold front extends westward from northern Alabama into Arkansas and Oklahoma and then northwestward into western Kansas. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is continuing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the eastern seaboard of the USA with another one just onshore of the west coast of the USA. A ridge of upper air high pressures bulges northward from Mexico across Texas and northward into the plains states. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light north northwesterly over our area.

Changes are still occurring as a couple of different weather factors come into play across Texas and the southern plains states. First, the upper high pressure area overhead.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. will be weakening as a slug of tropical moisture over the central Gulf of Mexico drifts west northwestward as a weak upper level low over northwest Texas drifts eastward across Texas. These factors will combine with a weak cold front moves southward into Texas. All in all, atmospheric lift will be increasing as moisture and atmospheric instability increases for the next few days.

As a result, beginning tonight into Wednesday, clouds will increase clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances will go up through the end of the week with a beneficial general rainfall possible. This will not be a severe weather event but rather heavier rain being the main issue. The latest NWS rainfall guidance suggests that upward of 1 to 2 inches could fall over parts of central and north Texas between now and late week. With increased clouds and rain chances tomorrow through Friday.. afternoon high temperatures will come down a few degrees.

By later Friday through next weekend, initial guidance suggests a drier and more stable weather pattern as upper high pressure begins once again to act like a “lid” on the atmosphere. However, please note, that some of the guidance continues to suggest that this week’s clouds and rain chances may actually extend into the weekend. Right now, I will continue to go for the drier solution for the weekend but I will still include isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for Saturday into early next week.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy early with low clouds late with isolated rain showers after midnight with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, variable clouds with scattered rain showers and thunderstorm with highs around 90. Southeasterly wind.

Have a good Tuesday night and Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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