Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion for Mon/4June2012

Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 4 June 2012

…. A More Unsettled Weather Pattern Due for Mid into Late Week ….
…. Clouds Will Be on the Increase with Scattered Rain Showers and Thunderstorms ….
…. Afternoon High Temperatures Will Fall a Few Degrees ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over Florida, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southwest North Atlantic Ocean. An area of low pressure is centered over the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends from the low pressure area southwestward into southwest Texas and another extends eastward from the low, as a dissipating frontal system, from central Oklahoma eastward into northern Mississippi and Alabama. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is continuing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is located over the eastern parts of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. A ridge of upper air high pressures bulges northward from Mexico northward into west Texas and New Mexico and northward into the southern Rockies. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light to moderate northwesterly over our area.

Changes are afoot this week as a couple of different factors come into play across Texas and the southern plains states. A slug of tropical moisture over the central Gulf of Mexico is drifting west northwestward as an upper level low over northeastern Mexico starting to move east northeastward into Texas. These two factors will combine with a series of very weak cold fronts moving southward into Texas. All in all, atmospheric lift will be increasing as moisture and atmospheric instability increases for the middle and latter part of the week.

As a result, beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday, I will increase clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week with a beneficial general rainfall possible. This will not be a severe weather event but rather heavier rain being the main issue. The latest NWS rainfall guidance suggests that upward of 1 to 2 inches could fall over parts of central and north Texas between now and late week. With increased clouds and rain chances.. afternoon high temperatures will come down a few degrees.

By later Friday through next weekend, initial guidance suggests a drier and more stable weather pattern as upper high pressure begins once again to act like a “lid” on the atmosphere. However, please note, that some of the guidance is suggesting that this week’s clouds and rain chances may actually extend into the weekend. Right now, I will go for the drier solution for the weekend but this could change.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy early with low clouds late with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds then becoming partly cloudy with highs in the 90s. Southerly wind.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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