Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Weather Discussion

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 11 July 2013

…. A Dry Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. A Slim Chance of Rain by Next Week ….

On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure is located over the southern Mississippi Valley and the Gulf of Mexico. A line.. or trough.. of low pressure is over southern and central New Mexico southward over far west Texas near El Paso. A southward moving cold front extends from a surface low over western Kentucky through central Arkansas into central Oklahoma then northwestward into western Kansas as a stationary front. Given this surface pressure pattern, surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a large area of upper air high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is over the western southern plains and westward over the southwestern USA. Troughs.. or lines.. of upper air low pressure are over the northwestern and western USA as well as over the eastern Great Lakes and the northeastern USA southward through the eastern quarter of the USA. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

Upper level high pressure area.. to our north and west.. continues to dominate our weather with a dry summer weather pattern expected over the next few days. Temperatures will continue to be at or above 100 degrees for the remainder of the week and first part of the weekend.

There continue to be indications of a slightly more unstable air mass by late Sunday into next week. I will continue to trend afternoon high temperatures down a couple of degrees and will add the mention of isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon into evening hours Monday into Tuesday.

The tropics are a bit quieter with the dissipation of tropical cyclone Chantal over the northern Caribbean. The remnants of the system are moving northward across the southern Bahamas and off the Florida east coast over the next few days.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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